By the Way, Connecticut Could Go Red | | Connecticut is a week away from a gubernatorial election, and The New York Times reports this morning that it's one of two states—Oregon being the other—where the Democratic Party seriously risks losing control of the governor's office.
The big issue: Connecticut is looking at a $4 billion budget deficit over the next two years, and Governor Dan Malloy, a Democrat, is extremely unpopular because of it.
The contenders: Three wealthy white guys. Democrat Ned Lamont has a tiny lead in the polls over his Republican opponent, Bob Stefanowski. Oz Griebel, a Republican-turned-third-party candidate, is polling at 8.4 percent.
Their pitches: Stefanowski wants to slash spending, but also eliminate estate taxes and phase out income taxes.
Lamont wants to keep income taxes as they are, and dedicate more money to job training and community colleges.
And Griebel wants to eliminate the "business entity" tax, which would cost the state a good deal of revenue, but theoretically make it a more attractive place for employers.
Even though Connecticut voted Democratic in the last seven presidential elections—and will likely elect all Democrats to the House and Senate—almost 900,000 of the state's 2.1 million registered voters are unaffiliated. So there's reason to believe a fiscal conservative has a shot in this election.
And that's Nutmeg State politics in a nutshell. | | It's New Money vs. Old Money in Close House Races Democratic candidates like Tom Malinowski (NJ-7) and Liuba Grechen Shirley (NY-2), who are crucial to the Democrats' effort to flip the House, are out-fundraising the Republican incumbents they're trying to unseat. The catch is, incumbency comes with perks. Like money stashed away from past fundraising, and access to Republican super PAC money. Now, the GOP has a week to spend big in hopes of holding onto its majority. (WNYC News) | | Year of the Servicewoman In an election cycle where identity politics are front and center, Democratic House candidate Rebecca Michelle "Mikie" Sherrill, who's trying to flip New Jersey's 11th district, brings up her military background far more than her gender. And she's not alone—the Democrats are running six veterans who happen to be women. In swing districts where the party is trying to win back Trump voters, pitching these candidates as veterans first appears to be a deliberate strategy. (WNYC News) | | Of New York's 63 State Senate Races, These Are the Ones to Watch Democrats only need to pick up one seat in the New York State Senate to begin 2019 as the majority party. As of now, 14 districts are considered "in play" (two on Long Island are in danger of flipping from blue to red). Here's your update on which way the "unsafe" seats are leaning, and how much cash each candidate has going into this final stretch. (City & State) | | Your Monday Listen: Making Sense of Midterm-Mania | | | As certain pundits would have it, women candidates are about to clean up, Beto O'Rourke is the next Kennedy, and we're now a week away from the most important election of all time.
But.
Even if every woman who's currently leading in their race ends up winning, the total number of women in Congress would only increase from 107 to 124.
As for red state Democrats running for the senate, Phil Bredesen of Tennessee is likelier to win than O'Rourke is in Texas.
And regarding that one superlative to rule them all, enthusiasm for this election is definitely high. But, only by midterm standards.
FiveThirtyEight's Clare Malone joined On The Media this weekend to pump the brakes on the runaway prognostication and put things into perspective as November 6 creeps up.
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